Thursday, November 18, 2010

The Case Against the Worse Case Scenario

AJ Green is the best receiver to ever hitch a route at Georgia. He'll be drafted within the top five, top seven for sure. There's no reason to believe he'll come back for his senior year.

Or is there...

  • the chances of a lockout are great and that would play a large role in his decision
  • he's never played a full season, between a hamstring, a shoulder and a jersey
  • he's just 20 hours short of his degree, on track to graduate next December
Don't discount the last bullet. To quote #8 himself:
“That’s going to be big. I was to get that (degree) because my family is really big on that, especially my mom. She really wants me to get that. Whatever she wants, then hey, I’ve got to do what she wants and make her happy. So if she tells me to stay, I’m going to stay.”
Go Mama Green! 

AJ put in a lot of work this off season with the goal of playing the full 2010 slate. Ultimately, when the season does end he's going to feel like he still has something to prove. But will it be enough to have him turn down a top pick in the NFL draft and millions of guaranteed dollars?

Stay greedy you NFL bastards. Stay very, very greedy.


Gov Milledge said...

I think he'll shock everyone and come back. He's mentioned before how disappointed he was to let his teammates down. also, accounting for the fact that Richt is over the coals perhaps partially due to AJ's 4 game suspension...

BulldogBry said...

I wish I shared everyone's optimism. I'm a die hard Dawg, but even I would tell him to go. Mama knows he can come back and get his degree. Regardless of the lockout, he can still start training and earning money right away. He's given us MORE than our money's worth.

Ollllddude said...

No one wants him back more than I do. No one. But as much as I may want him back, the rational side of me will not predict that he stays. In fact, if there was no threat of a lockout by the NFL, I would have to believe he is leaving. There is just too much money for him to leave on the table.

But the possibility - maybe even the probability - of a lockout really does change things. He has to decide by January, the draft a couple of months later, and the lockout would be sometime after that. Some people think he will go because "signing bonuses are paid even if you don't play". Yeah, except that no owner is going to sign a player to a big bonus if there is going to be a lockout.

So, the lockout possibility means that AJ could declare, get drafted and get no money (at least not right away) and be shut out of a senior year and have to wait on his degree. It might make sense to wait if that happened.

But if the NFL were to resolve the issues with an agreement in early January, we will just have to wish him luck and follow his career waiting for the highlights.

I join Bernie heartily: "Stay greedy you NFL bastards. Stay very, very greedy."

dawghouse23 said...

Ollllddude, he can still make money. As soon as he declares he can start signing endorsement deals, which there will be plenty available. If there's a lockout he can still sign endorsement deals and go to college and earn his degree. I hope he stays, but it's unlikely. Whatever he decides to do, I sure am glad we go to watch him play as a Dawg.

Bernie said...

There's a fairly small part of me that share's MTs optimism. However, if I were to advise him based solely on his best interests I would have to tell him to go. I think most Dawg fans share that perspective, mostly for the reasons dawghouse23 points out.

Yet, I keep going back to everything we've heard about this kid. He committed (in every sense of the word I might add) early and shut out other high profile campuses. In short, he bleeds R&B much harder than some other more recent high profile early entries.

I guess the only thing we can be sure of at this point is he'll toss this dilemma around more thoroughly than our last #1 pick.

(and that's no real knock on Stafford. I'm just saying that I think AJ is a little more vested in the college game.)

AthensHomerDawg said...

Well stated Bernie. I wish we had some more David Pollacks that hung around but, what are the risks for AJ? When my son got hurt at state, wrestling -the Doctor said if he continued in that sport he would likely re-injure it and he would likely have to have surgery. At that point we were done. In spite of coaches and other parents and my son's desire to continue ..... we were done! You engage professionals to advise you and you might ought to heed their opinion. But, I do wish AJ would stay.

Dawgfan17 said...

Small chance it happens but how great would it be if not only he came back but got 14-15 of the hours during summer quarter then would only have to take a few classes in the fall during the season so he can spend more time working with the qb's, teaching the other wr's and concentrating being even greater than he already is. An even better dream would be that his sticking around convinced Houston to stay another year.