Monday, September 22, 2014

Dawgs vs vols - the early line

A lot of discussion last night about Georgia opening as a 19 point favorite over Tennessee. I'm no Vegas expert, and I agree that might seem a bit high, but here's why folks:

  1. The vols offensive line is not good. And they'll be up against a hostile (albeit it entirely too sober) crowd. In fact, this Tennessee o-line is their clear weakness.
  2. Which makes them easy to figure out offensively, at least on paper. Of course, anything could happen Saturday, but Pruitt should be able to generate pressure up front which only helps his young secondary.
  3. They can't stop Gurley. Or anyone behind Gurley. Which likely means even a close game could pull away late as Georgia will want to pound away like they did in the opener.
So at this early juncture, it's really strengths vs weaknesses on paper. Tennessee is 62nd in pass offense, averaging just 5.9 yards per attempt and completing just 58% of their passes. Given that those numbers dropped significantly in their first road test against Oklahoma, the oddsmakers aren't confident that Justin Worley can exploit Georgia's defense the way Dylan Thompson was able to.